Most ASEAN Leaders seemed very cautious and wished to see Japan gradually develop its new proactive security role without alarming any of its neighbours in Northeast Asia, particularly China and the North Korea. He did not quite get it when he met ASEAN Leaders at the Tokyo commemorative summit. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wanted ASEAN support for its new proactive security role. The year-long celebration culminated in the Second Commemorative ASEAN-Japan Summit in Tokyo, 13-14 December. At the same time, ASEAN also celebrated with Japan their 40 th anniversary of dialogue partnership. This was an auspicious time for China to show some moderation in the South China Sea. ASEAN and China celebrated the 10 th anniversary of their strategic partnership in 2013. The year 2013 saw a relatively calmer situation in the South China Sea. Known knowns are things we know that we know, our general knowledge. I am going to use his brilliant approach to illuminate the complexity of the disputes in the South China Sea. NASA has actually been using it in planning space missions and preparing to cope with risks from known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. I tend to agree with him that this is a useful conceptual framework for analyzing complex problems. Former US Secretary Defense Donald Rumsfeld made semantic history on 12 February 2002 when he gave the profoundly perplexing explanation about “known knowns,” “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” in Iraq.
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